The analysis of Chinese navy'sregional ambition from French Captain Li Yu-Ming Captain Duan Teh-Wei Abstract¡G 1.The rise of China is already a fact that doesn¡¦t need to discuss. T he military capability is promoted as follow. Naval power is the best way to show off the strength of its national status. So China nowadays puts the navy in the first priority of military development. Besides aims at the Taiwan problem, and want to act as the major power in the Asia and the Pacific region in the future. 2.On the moment of the economical fast development, sea transportation has also controlled China's development. China is not only develop it s navy, but also make an strategy alliance with those peripheral count ries around its main route of sea transportation to carry out its stra tegic aims. 3.France although acts as a main promoter to relieve the embargo of ar ms for China. But facing Chinese military force rising and the situati on change in Asian and Pacific area, the French military pays closely attention, in geopolitics point, to this change, and by different way and view to explain the relieves of arm embargo procedure, bring out t he nimble and the practical diplomatic strategy of France. Content 1.Introduction The French version ¡§Flottes de Combat 2006¡¨ was published in the end of 2005. It mentions about the anxious of PRC¡¦s navy, even though Ch ina has already the 3rd biggest fleet by tonnage in the world. Most pa rt of their warships is getting older and could not support its missio n. (Ref. chart 1) For promoting its national strategic position, the m odernization of its navy is undergoing, and that will for sure change the balance of regional security in Asia. 2.The purpose for enhancing the PRC¡¦s navy French military magazine mentions: ¡§China could launch its first airc raft carrier within three years. This rumor, not confirmed by the Chin ese authorities, did not pass unperceived in the international communi ty. And the PLAN¡¦s (PLAN: Peoples Liberation Army Navy) first LSD ¡V class 071 ¡V has already built-up and proceed the detail works.¡¨ On t he other hand, the Chinese People's Liberation Army's modernized proje ct is unceasingly carrying on, causes the circumstance of Asian area c hanged and unstable. The risks of crisis with Taiwan remain strong in spite of an economic interdependence, which increases with Mainland Ch ina. The presidential elections will be held on the island in this yea r. Beijing, which adopted in 2005 a law of anti-secession towards its "rebellious island", would like to secure a military supremacy in the strait of Formosa to dissuade Taiwan from autoproclamer its independen ce. So PLAN is needed to equip sufficient naval power to carry out thi s military operation. Beyond, China attempts to balance the American m ilitary strength in this area, in particular with the US seventh fleet . According to a report of the French Senate entitled ¡§the peaceful e mergence of China in the world¡¨: China wants to prevent that the Unit ed States intervenes in a problem, which she regards as "internal". Th e PLAN does not want to solve the correlation subjects with Tokyo in p rivate, but Chinese navy attempt to make a competition with Japanese n avy. According to Mr. Mehdi Taje, researcher in the Center of analysis and forecast of the international risks (Centre d'Analyse et de Previ sion des Risques Internationaux - CAPRI), more than 82% Japan¡¦s marit ime transportation transit by the strait of Formosa, China plans to cr eate a sea power to interfere the imports Nipponese in the event of co nflict. 3.Strategic archipelagoes and passages The PLAN is a powerful tool for Beijing to defend what it perceives li ke its territorial integrity in Asian region, especially in south Chin a Sea; and this power could also try to making respect its exclusive e conomic zone (ZEE), and to secure its privilege access with the raw ma terials and the energy resources from the South China Sea. The relatio ns with those South China Sea peripheral countries are tended because of the various territorial claims on many islands, for example: with J apan for the islands Diaoyutai (Japanese name Senkaku), Taiwan, Vietna m, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia for the archipelagoes o f Pratas (Dongsha), Paracel (Xisha) and Spratley (Nansha). Besides, the presence of hydrocarbons (gas, oil) and of the resources halieutics, the PLAN¡¦s activities in this area unfold the strategic l ayouts of Chinese authority to these islands and the consideration of Beijing's benefit. According to Mr. Medhi Taje, those islands could be come "control points of the sea routes" to connect the Far East and th e rest of the world. They also constitute "best positions" to shelter "techniques of guidance radar" and to listen to the ships communicatio ns which cross the China Sea. Until now, China has already created suf ficient surveillance capabilities to get the information on those sea transportation lines in this area. But the exploitation of the oil res ources in this area does not sufficient for the needs of China, just l ike ¡§a drop of oil into the ocean of the Chinese basins" according to Mr. Frederic Lasserre, author of the book ¡§The Dragon and the sea - Le Dragon et la mer¡¨. The French military also found that beyond its borders, China would li ke also in the long term to have capacity to control the access of sou th China Sea and if possible, to prolongate to the Indian Ocean. For t his reason, by those trade agreements signed with the Indian Ocean per ipheral country, the PLAN is ensured gradually of the military and dip lomatic supports along the principal sea routes. According to colonel Frouart, chief of the sector Asia-Pacific in the bureau of strategy af faires - Delegation aux Affaires strat?gic (DAS) - of the French minis try for defense: this "artificial littoral line" enabling China to con trol and supervise the Indian Ocean. This strategic, known as the "col lar of pearls", imposed by China because it does not have enough finan cial means and techniques to maintain permanently a fleet in patrol fa r from its bases. These "pearls" will be able to as well constitute th e key of its projection of sea power in peace times or war times, as t o avoid the acts of piracy. By the request of South-east Asia countrie s, the French assist recent year to establish their capacities of ocea nography in South China Sea. This act also may confirm that the periph eral nations regarding this region have vigilance to China. The Chinese leaders do often to recall that the stability and the cohe sion of their country depend on the economic continuously growth and t he availability of the energy resources. China, fifth producer of oil, is also the second importer in the world. The presence of the PLAN at the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean would make it possible for B eijing to preserve "opening" all the necessary strategic passages for its trade and its gas and oil transportations. This strategy also aims , according to colonel Frouart, "to make pressure on the geostrategic thinking of India" and "to impose China like an dominant actor of the Indian Ocean, and try to challenge New Delhi by extend its influence i n the Pacific Ocean". Lastly, whereas it multiplies the investments in Africa and in the southern Asia, of the means increased for the PLAN would enable China, in the event of crisis, to carry out operations of protection and evacuation of its nationals. The Chinese Government is trying to enforce its military capabilities, found by France. The budget of the defense is increased for 300% at t he last decade and it rises to 35 billion euros in this year, increase d to 17.8. Depending the official number made by SIPRI (Stockholm Inte rnational Peace Research Institute) the number announced by China is 1 .5 times lower than reality, 3 times lower according to the CIA. This budget does not take into account the values of research and developme nt on new materials, and the purchases of weapons abroad, especially f rom Russia. According to Alexandre Sheldon-Duplaix, in charge of resea rch in the Service of defense history (Service historique de la d?fens e - SHD), the PLAN, with approximately 11% of effective in PLA, is app roximately 250,000 peoples, would receive between 1/8 and 1/5 of the b udget. The 5 White Book of Chinese defense published at the end of 200 6, just like the many declarations of the Chinese leaders, testifies t he priority given to the PLAN in the modernization. Hu Jintao, the pre sident of China, declared the December 2005 that the "navy must be rei nforced and modernized" and to be prepared "for the military combat co nstantly". 4.Coastal defense with "active defense" French military also found that the changes of China¡¦s ocean strategy . By the efforts of modernization and renew equipments, PLAN could bec ome a blue navy to pass from a coastal defense to a "active defense". The last White Paper defines the PLAN¡¦s strategy of development in th ree phases, which proposed by admiral Li Huaqing in 1980. First phase: to increase the capacities of projection in the strait of Formosa, wh ich must be reached before 2010, to be able to contain Taiwan and Japa n in "the first islands chain". On that date, the PLAN hopes to stand at certain parity with the Japanese navy. Second phase, between 2010 a nd 2020: to be able to intervene militarily until the "second islands chain". For that, major modernizations of the fleet must be carried ou t. Third phase, which should extend until the medium of XXI century: t o be able to serve China¡¦s ambitions beyond the "second islands chain " and to become a main naval power in Asia, a real ¡§blue navy¡¨. The Chinese navy, in that date, will be able to carry out "numerical" and joint operations, to reduce the gap of technology with US Navy. That¡¦s only a plan for PLAN¡¦s development of strategy. However, from the analyses of the capabilities of execution about PLAN, the task of modernization seems immense. The report of the Senate stresses the pr oblems of formation and the shortage of operational experience of the crews. Besides, according to Jean-Vincent Brisset, General in 2nd sect ion and director of research at the institute of international relatio ns and strategy (IRIS): the Chinese army is a "secondary army". It has "lots of bigots, poor, badly equipped and not well trained". Colonel Frouart insists that "the shortage of joint operations training¡¦s cul ture, so China still have lots of problems in coordination and joint o peration command domain". China knows its weak points, so it used a hu ge budget to buy les equipments and to increase the over abroad and mu lti-nations training to enhance PLAN¡¦s abilities. 5.Russian imports At present, more than half of the Chinese fleet is decayed, ready for obsolete. Colonel Frouart estimates that the Chinese shipyards are not able to build high quality warship. The progress of PLAN¡¦s moderniza tion was quite slow, Nevertheless, the EU¡¦s embargo in some offensive weapons for China since the massacres at Tiananmen. China remains ver y depend on the Russian¡¦s assist in complex military-industry (import s of Kilo submarines, Sovermenny destroyers, Sukhoi fighters). Even th ough French government, especially the ex-president Chirac, plays a ma in role to abolish the embargo for China, but this topic still stay in the political discussion phase, not for the real. In fact, the record that China tries to involve some problems of African countries, those ancient French colonies, and counterfeit French products, makes Frenc h industry and military do certain concern about the sale of advance w eapons to China. Until now, EU still keeps in low profile in weapons s ales to China, and China seems to cooperate with, and did not propose the requirement for highly advance weapons, such like fighters or wars hips. Many structural deficits of China must be made up. For the French poin t of view, PLAN¡¦s logistic capacities, the amphibians ships, replenis hment ships, and LSD are insufficient, if an intervention should be ca rried out to against Taiwan. The PLAN also absences of specialized com bat ships (destroyers, frigates) and air-defense means. In the modern electronic and information environment, those weaknesses complicate th e evaluation of its combat capacity. That¡¦s the reason why the Chines e navy develops fourteen classes of warships. PLAN emphases its modern ization in the construction of air-defense destroyers, furtive frigate s, missile launcher boats, new amphibious ships and new minesweepers. Numbers of its patrol ships were designed with the profit of the open sea. China wants to reinforce its capabilities of replenishment; two t ankers of 23000 tons have been built. As for the underwater forces, they should be reinforced. General Jean- Vincent Brisset estimates that the operational capacity of the only on e nuclear ballistic missiles submarine (SSBN) is limited, so does the nuclear attack submarines. The report is not better for its traditiona l submarines. The submarines of the classes "Romeo" and "Ming" are obs olete and too noisy to escape from detection. The recurring rumor of t he construction of the first Chinese aircraft carrier is still in calc ulation for its budget. The only one could have possibility to be comm issioned in year 2010 is the unfinished carrier, named made by the Ukr aine. She has just been repainted with the colors of the PLAN. Would i t be completed or would only be used as a model for the Chinese engine ers? The intelligent specialists are studying hardily with all the inf ormation. The second carrier would use nuclear power and commission in 2020? The situation was not clear yet. Some reports mention that Chin a will finish the construction of its aircraft carrier in 2017, but ce rtain French researchers estimate that the Chinese navy could not have a functional system before year 2015-2018. 6.Conclusion By recent fact, the PLAN will fully integrated into the policy of Chin ese national security. In the nomination of the commander of the naval forces, the commanders of the 2nd artillery and Air Force at the cent ral military Commission in 2005 testifies this situation. The great po litical and economic centers of China are located on its littoral area , its coastline that extends on nearly 15000 kilometers. The moderniza tion of the PLAN will make it possible for Beijing to have more strate gic depth, "all its sensitive and problematic maritime borders being", according to colonel Lo?c Frouart. Besides, PLAN will give China the possibility of finding the role of leader in Asia, geographical area t hat regards traditionally as China¡¦s territory. References: 1.Enjeux ¡V les ambition maritimes de la chine, Armees d¡¦aujourd¡¦hui , No 320,mai 2007. 2.Flottes de Combat 2006. 3.Les enjeux de la competition maritime entre l¡¦Inde et la Chine, Bul letin d¡¦etudes de la Marine. 4.Emergence pacifique de la Chine dans le monde, raport du SENAT.